US
US Economy
Topic
50.8%
Accuracy
Recent Predictions
Incorrect: 30
Pending: 506
Unrated: 0
Prediction
Author
Predicted at
Status
Video
If the US can extract Venezuelan oil cheaply, inflation will be subdued and economic growth will be higher, leading to US prosperity.
"inflation will be subdued. We're going to get higher economic growth and the USA will prosper"
Jan 7, 2026
Pending
The US government will continue to spend money it doesn't have in 2026, requiring borrowing. A potential decrease in Japanese investment in US debt could force the US government to raise interest rates to attract lenders.
"And number three has to do with United States debt buying. So the United States government also spen..."
Dec 24, 2025
Correct
If the Supreme Court overturns Trump's tariffs, it could provide a bullish tailwind for the markets, potentially benefiting crypto.
"There's also the possibility that Trump's tariffs will be thrown out by the Supreme Court in the com..."
Nov 7, 2025
Incorrect
The US federal deficit, currently around 7% of GDP, would dramatically increase if the AI bubble bursts and a recession occurs.
"The federal deficit is already running at around 7% of GDP. If the AI bubble bursts and ..."
Oct 17, 2025
Pending
Money printing by the Federal Reserve is predicted to exacerbate the wealth gap in the United States.
"all this money printing, it's going to widen the wealth gap because some people are closer to the mo..."
Oct 16, 2025
Correct
In 50 years, the current era will be remembered as the period when central bankers' actions, driven by greed and recklessness, led to the ruin of the country.
"this is going to be known as the era of when the central bankers took control and greed and reckless..."
Oct 16, 2025
Pending
Stopping money printing would cause the worst recession since the Great Depression.
"if we stopped this money printing, we would see the biggest recession that we have seen since the Gr..."
Oct 6, 2025
Pending
US GDP is projected to reach $30 trillion in 2025.
"The United States economy in 2025 is expected to hit $30 trillion big. Again, that is our GDP, which..."
Oct 6, 2025
Pending
A $1.8 trillion decrease in GDP would lead to a 6% economic contraction.
"if our GDP falls by $1.8 trillion, that would mean that our economy would contract by around 6%."
Oct 6, 2025
Pending
Stopping deficit spending and money printing would trigger a recession 50% worse than 2008, with unprecedented economic pain.
"This would be a 50% worse recession than that. This is why it is so difficult for the United States ..."
Oct 6, 2025
Pending
Recessions and market crashes are inevitable and are likely to be more severe in the future.
"Next time we see a recession because we know the recessions happen. We know that market crashes happ..."
Oct 6, 2025
Pending
A government shutdown lasting a month could reduce US GDP growth by 0.8% and potentially push a slowing economy into recession.
"If the estimates are right, a month-long shutdown could cost 0.8% 8% of growth, potentially tipping ..."
Sep 30, 2025
Incorrect
A slight increase in the perceived risk of the US dollar will eventually lead to a repricing of all financial assets.
"When the world's so-called risk-free rate becomes slightly less risk-free, everything reprices event..."
Sep 30, 2025
Correct
Government shutdowns result in billions of dollars in permanently lost economic activity across communities with a significant federal presence.
"Multiply that across every community with a major federal presence and you get billions in lost econ..."
Sep 30, 2025
Correct
Each week of US government outage is estimated to cause 0.1% to 0.2% damage to the economy, according to the CBO and Goldman Sachs.
"Estimates from the Congressional Budget Office and Goldman Sachs calculate the damage at about 0.1% ..."
Sep 30, 2025
Pending
During the 2018-2019 shutdown, restaurants in the Washington D.C. area experienced revenue drops of 20-60%.
"The 2018 to 2019 shutdown showed this clearly. Washington DC area restaurants reported 20 to 60% rev..."
Sep 30, 2025
Correct
The August jobs report was poor.
"And the most recent August one was also bad."
Sep 20, 2025
Incorrect
US lost 13,000 jobs in June.
"The jobs numbers changed again and we're now showing we actually lost 13,000 jobs in June."
Sep 20, 2025
Incorrect
US added 22,000 jobs in August, resulting in 4.3% unemployment.
"We added only 22,000 jobs, which means unemployment is now at 4.3%."
Sep 20, 2025
Incorrect
US job growth in August 2025 was lower than anticipated, and revisions indicated a weaker job market throughout most of 2025.
"And the United States economy added less jobs than expected, but the Bureau of Labor Statistics revi..."
Sep 19, 2025
Pending
Predicted that the US economy might enter a recession within the next 3 to 9 months (from September 18, 2025).
"don't be surprised if in the next 3 to 9 months you end up in a recession."
Sep 18, 2025
Incorrect
Predicted the US economy will enter a recession within the next 3 to 9 months (by 2026-06-18).
"don't be surprised if in the next 3 to 9 months you end up in a recession."
Sep 18, 2025
Incorrect
Predicted a recession is possible within the next 3 to 9 months based on heavy truck sales data.
"don't be surprised if in the next 3 to 9 months you end up in a recession. It's no guarantee, but lo..."
Sep 18, 2025
Incorrect
With US unemployment at a 3-year high of 4.3%, consumer demand for loans (home, car) is expected to be low despite interest rate cuts.
"US is at the highest level of unemployment right now at 4.3%. Is this something scary and answer is ..."
Sep 18, 2025
Incorrect
Predicted that the US economy could enter a recession within the next 3 to 9 months from the video's publication date (September 18, 2025).
"don't be surprised if in the next 3 to 9 months you end up in a recession."
Sep 18, 2025
Incorrect
US GDP was $29.1 trillion in 2024 and is projected to be $30 trillion by the end of 2025.
"In 2024, the United States economy was $29.1 trillion large... It is estimated that the United State..."
Aug 29, 2025
Pending
The speaker believes the US is close to a recession and potentially something worse.
"Right now, we are at a decision-making point and very close to a recession. And I'm worried about so..."
Aug 29, 2025
Pending
A report published on August 13, 2025, by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, analyzed the resilience of consumer spending using credit card data.
"The Federal Reserve Bank of Boston just published a report on August 13th, 2025 titled, "Why has con..."
Aug 26, 2025
Pending
Data suggests that consumers with higher incomes are the primary drivers of spending growth.
"Data indicates higher income consumers are driving spending growth."
Aug 26, 2025
Pending
This is a prediction that government layoffs will increase significantly, surpassing even those in the tech sector, with an estimated quarter-million people laid off.
"What happens if you get fired? What happens if you lose your job? I know you work for the government..."
Aug 20, 2025
Pending
Consumers are opting for less expensive alternatives, with Walmart seeing a shift to cheaper products and dollar stores experiencing increased traffic from both low-income and middle-class shoppers.
"Consumer behavior is adapting predictably. A Walmart reports customers trading down to cheaper alter..."
Aug 10, 2025
Pending
The US administration is examining pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and copper for potential targeted restrictions.
"The administration is investigating pharmaceutical semiconductors and copper for targeted restrictio..."
Aug 10, 2025
Pending
The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma: raising interest rates to combat tariff-driven inflation could harm the economy, while maintaining current rates would allow inflation to persist.
"The Fed finds itself trapped between inflation and recession. Raising rates to combat tariff induced..."
Aug 10, 2025
Pending
The debate over inflation's transience has resurfaced, with current inflation being policy-driven and appearing to be long-lasting.
"The transitory debate has returned with a vengeance, except this time the inflation is policy induce..."
Aug 10, 2025
Pending
The events of August 1st are seen as a prelude to more significant disruptions.
"The chaos of August 1st was just the warm-up act."
Aug 10, 2025
Pending
There is a continued bipartisan agreement on confronting China, despite the self-destructive nature of the current methods.
"The bipartisan consensus on confronting China remains intact even as methods prove self-destructive."
Aug 10, 2025
Pending
Democrats are expressing objections to the current tariff policies but have not proposed a clear alternative.
"Democrats offer complaints but no coherent alternative."
Aug 10, 2025
Pending
Congressional Republicans, anticipating difficult 2026 midterm elections, are starting to disassociate from tariff policies without directly criticizing President Trump.
"Congressional Republicans facing brutal 2026 midterms are beginning to distance themselves from tari..."
Aug 10, 2025
Pending
A significant majority (89%) of manufacturers are experiencing increased costs.
"89% of manufacturers are facing higher costs."
Aug 10, 2025
Pending
The executive order was released during a period of poor corporate earnings and weak economic indicators.
"The order landed just as markets were digesting disappointing earnings and weak economic data."
Aug 10, 2025
Pending
Financial markets are factoring in lasting uncertainty, evidenced by expanding credit spreads and inverting yield curves.
"Financial markets are pricing in permanent uncertainty. Credit spreads are widening. Yield curves in..."
Aug 10, 2025
Pending
Hiring in compliance departments is outpacing layoffs in the tech sector.
"Compliance departments are hiring faster than tech companies are firing."
Aug 10, 2025
Pending
All sectors essential to modern life are currently under review for potential policy changes.
"Every sector keeping modern life functional is under review."
Aug 10, 2025
Pending
August 1st experienced significant market declines, with the S&P 500 falling 1.6% and the Nasdaq dropping 2.2%.
"August 1st saw sharp sell-offs. The S&P 500 dropped 1.6% while the Nasdaq fell 2.2%."
Aug 10, 2025
Pending
The US dollar unexpectedly strengthened despite the US initiating trade conflicts with its partners.
"The dollar paradoxically strengthened despite America declaring economic war on its trading partners..."
Aug 10, 2025
Pending
Investors moved towards safe-haven assets, causing treasury yields to drop sharply, while commodity markets experienced volatility as traders assessed supply chain resilience.
"Treasury yields fell sharply as investors sought safe haven assets and commodity markets whipsared a..."
Aug 10, 2025
Pending
Ford and GM faced a sudden and significant increase in input costs amidst their ongoing transition to electric vehicles.
"Ford and GM, already struggling with the EV transition, watched their input costs explode overnight."
Aug 10, 2025
Pending
89% of manufacturers reported cost increases due to government protectionist policies, rather than foreign competition.
"The National Association of Manufacturers reported that 89% of members faced increase in costs, not ..."
Aug 10, 2025
Pending
Small manufacturers are confronting existential risks as a result of the current economic conditions.
"Small manufacturers are facing existential threats rather than quarterly disappointments."
Aug 10, 2025
Pending
Tariffs are proving to be a fatal blow to companies operating with low profit margins.
"For firms with slim profit margins, these tariffs function as a death sentence delivered by their ow..."
Aug 10, 2025
Pending